Drought Risk Analysis of Stochastically Generated Streamflow for the Red River Basin

The Red River is susceptible to periods of dry conditions that have the potential to adversely impact ecological conditions and water supply. The project is aligned with the International Red River Board’s work plan by improving water quantity knowledge for water quantity apportionment and Instream Flow Needs.

To understand the potential for drought conditions in the Red Basin, this project included the development of a water balance model and stochastic (a statistical model that explains most of the variability of meteorological trends with the addition of modeled random variability that accounts for what cannot be predicted) hydrometeorological data to derive a set of synthetic streamflow time series for the Red River that would be used to statistically characterize the potential for periods of extreme low flows over the next 50 years.